He will win if, he has no bad luck and gets to run his race. You can put this horse any place you want him with his high cruising speed and he rates really well and stays relaxed. If he were mine, I would let him take the lead, relax, slow them down and wait 'till someone challenges. I think he will win by ten.
He has had two very impressive easy works since the Preakness. He has held his weight good and Baffert says his energy is high and shows no sign of being tired.
I agree with what you said...I am not a horseman but he has that smooth action...like no energy is wasted...he is slender enough to make the long race...and like all laid back mammals...he will rise to the occasion...because he is a champion...